Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 8.422557e-05 0.000100 0.000117 0.000137 0.000158 0.000181 0.000208
2025-01-19 6.345728e-05 0.000085 0.000110 0.000140 0.000175 0.000215 0.000262
2025-01-26 4.945954e-05 0.000072 0.000100 0.000135 0.000177 0.000227 0.000287
2025-02-02 4.043035e-05 0.000064 0.000095 0.000136 0.000186 0.000247 0.000322
2025-02-09 3.339690e-05 0.000058 0.000090 0.000134 0.000192 0.000261 0.000350
2025-02-16 2.954684e-05 0.000055 0.000090 0.000139 0.000204 0.000285 0.000389
2025-02-23 2.539481e-05 0.000051 0.000087 0.000140 0.000212 0.000302 0.000419
2025-03-02 2.002453e-05 0.000044 0.000080 0.000135 0.000211 0.000307 0.000435
2025-03-09 1.638306e-05 0.000039 0.000076 0.000133 0.000213 0.000316 0.000457
2025-03-16 1.367784e-05 0.000036 0.000073 0.000132 0.000217 0.000329 0.000481
2025-03-23 1.177148e-05 0.000034 0.000072 0.000133 0.000223 0.000344 0.000509
2025-03-30 9.699766e-06 0.000031 0.000069 0.000132 0.000226 0.000354 0.000531
2025-04-06 7.322992e-06 0.000027 0.000064 0.000128 0.000226 0.000361 0.000551
2025-04-13 6.233656e-06 0.000025 0.000063 0.000131 0.000237 0.000383 0.000590
2025-04-20 4.461310e-06 0.000021 0.000058 0.000126 0.000234 0.000387 0.000605
2025-04-27 3.561910e-06 0.000020 0.000057 0.000127 0.000241 0.000402 0.000637
2025-05-04 2.690498e-06 0.000018 0.000054 0.000126 0.000244 0.000414 0.000662
2025-05-11 2.357281e-06 0.000017 0.000055 0.000131 0.000256 0.000438 0.000706
2025-05-18 1.864551e-06 0.000016 0.000054 0.000132 0.000263 0.000455 0.000738
2025-05-25 1.178057e-06 0.000014 0.000050 0.000127 0.000259 0.000457 0.000751
2025-06-01 7.791138e-07 0.000012 0.000047 0.000125 0.000260 0.000465 0.000771
2025-06-08 5.260761e-07 0.000011 0.000045 0.000124 0.000264 0.000476 0.000797
2025-06-15 3.738856e-07 0.000010 0.000045 0.000125 0.000270 0.000492 0.000830